Space Weather Workshop 2022
Filter displayed posters (188 keywords)
Predicting Solar Proton Events of Solar Cycles 22-24
Aatiya Ali, Viacheslav Sadykov
Quantifying the Impacts of Interplanetary Propagation and Transient Events on Solar Energetic Particle Intensity-Time Profiles
Alicia K. Petersen, Stephen M. White, Stephen W. Kahler
GONG Data Processing at SWPC
Andrew R. Marble, John Britanik & Chris Bidwell
SOLAR RADIO SPECTRO-POLARIMETRY (50 - 500 MHz)
Anshu Kumari1,2, G. V. S. Gireesh1, C. Kathiravan1, V. Mugundhan3,4, Indrajit V. Barve1 and R. Ramesh1
An Advanced Low-band VHF Radar for Atmospheric, Space, and Solar Research
Brett Isham, Jason Kooi, Namir Kassim, Joseph Helmboldt, Jorge Chau, Juha Vierinen, Marco Milla, Michael Nolan, Michel Blanc, Wlodek Kofman
Over the years our awareness of what might be gained by such an observatory has increased, and the techniques that can be used have dramatically improved, making this an opportune time for the design and construction of a powerful and capable modern radar observatory.
Possibilities for solar radar observations will be presented as an example of the potential of the proposed system for achieving selected science goals. Solar radar will be a game changer for solar physics research and space weather prediction and monitoring, including early warning of earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Space weather is a critical factor in communication, navigation, power distribution, and for both manned and unmanned aircraft and spacecraft.
The incorporation of a low-band VHF radar as part of a renewed Arecibo Observatory would benefit the American ISR chain, the 60W/120E great circle initiative, and heliospheric, planetary, and geospace science.
Comparison of JPL and ESP Solar proton fluence models using the background-subtracted RDSv2.0 dataset
B. X. Zhu, I. Jun, and J.M. Ratliff
MHD waves propagation in the solar atmosphere on the MHD Equations with Radiative Losses
Carlos Andrés Bautista Torres - Fabio Duvan Lora Clavijo
Coronal Hole Observer and Regional Tracker for Long-Term Examination
Improving Operational Solar EUV Irradiance Modeling Using Physics-Based Differential Emission Measure Techniques
Courtney Peck, Daniel Seaton, Christian Bethge, Janet Machol, Ed Thiemann, Mark Cheung
Magnetic reconnection of two twisted magnetic flux tubes in the Sun
L. Daniela Jaimes-Gonzalez, Fabio D. Lora-Clavijo
Estimating Ionospheric Slab Thickness during 11 August 2018 Solar Eclipse for Different Locations
Furkan Ali KÜÇÜK, Ceyhan KAHYA
Space Weather Applications for Statistical Relationships Between Solar Wind, and IMF Parameters
H. A. Elliott1,2, C. N. Arge3, C. J. Henney4, M. A. Dayeh1,2, G. Livadiotis5, J.-M. Jahn1,2 and C. E. DeForest6
Concept for Real-Time Solar Flare Predictions
Juliana T. Vievering, P. S. Athiray, J. C. Buitrago-Casas, P. Chamberlin, L. Glesener, S. Krucker, J. Machol, C. Peck, M. Peterson, K. K. Reeves, S. Savage, B. Smith, A. Winebarger
LSTM MultiLabel network to predict solar flares from SHARP parameters
Luís Nascimento; Tardelli Stekel
Simplified CME monitoring and characterization by summarizing time series of coronagraph images
An autoregressive solar wind speed forecasting Deep Learning model
Mario Cobos Maestre, Manuel Flores-Soriano, David F. Barrero
Assessing Space Weather for Mars Missions
J. Martin Ratliff, Allen J. Andersen
NOAA’s Solar Coronagraph Instrument on L5 Orbit
N.-Y. Wang, D. Biesecker, I. Azeem, J. Silva, R. Ullman, E. Talaat, D. Chua, A. Thernisien
What Machine Learning Algorithms Teach us about Which Explanatory Variables Matter Most in Predicting Bz within Coronal Mass Ejections
Pete Riley, M. A. Reiss, and C. Moestl
NCEI’s Planned Space Weather Follow On Science Center - Powering Space Science Discovery
R.J. Redmon(1,3), N. Merati(1), W. Rowland(1,2), L. Rachmeler(1), J. Machol(1,2), B. Kress(1,2), K. Hallock(1,2), T. M. Loto’aniu(1,2), J. V. Rodriguez(1,2), D. Schmit(1,2)
Statistical analysis for EUV dynamic spectra and their impact on the ionosphere during solar flares
Shohei NISHIMOTO, Kyoko WATANABE, Hidekatsu JIN, Toshiki KAWAI, Shinsuke IMADA, Tomoko KAWATE, Yuichi OTSUKA, Atsuki SHINBORI, Takuya TSUGAWA, Michi NISHIOKA
Mapping the Sun with the Italian radio telescopes
S.Righini, A.Pellizzoni, M.N.Iacolina, M.Marongiu, S.Mulas, G.Murtas, G.Valente, E.Egron, M.Bachetti, F.Buffa, R.Concu, G.L.Deiana, S.L.Guglielmino, A.Ladu, S.Loru, A.Maccaferri, P.Marongiu, A.Melis, A.Navarrini, A.Orfei, P.Ortu, M.Pili, T.Pisanu, G.Pupillo, A.Saba, L.Schirru, G.Serra, C.Tiburzi, A.Zanichelli, P.Zucca, M.Messerotti
Integrated Model for the Solar Energetic Particles and Alfven Wave Turbulence in the Inner Heliosphere
Valeriy Tenishev, Igor Sokolov, Lulu Zhao
In the presented work, we combined the results of modeling different parts of SEPs propagation in the inner heliosphere and geospace. First, we solve the Focused Transport equation to simulate the transport and acceleration of SEPs as they propagate in the inner heliosphere. Then, the modeling results are used for simulating the transport of SEPs in geospace using a realistic geomagnetic field. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling approach employed in this study and summarizes the results.
Prediction of Solar Proton Events with Machine Learning: Comparison with Operational Forecasts and “All-Clear” Perspectives
Sadykov, V.M. and NASA ESI team
Super-adiabatic Heating and Cooling of Alfv\'enic Solar Wind
Zubair I. Shaikh* (1), Anil Raghav (2), Geeta Vichare (1), Raffaella D'Amicis (3), and Daniele Telloni (4)
Latitudinal Variation of the Relationship of Ionospheric Slab Thickness with the Height of the Peak Electron Density of F2 Layer
Mehmet Baran Ökten, Zehra Can
In this study, with ionosondes with URSI codes IF843, PA836, BC840, AU930, PRJ18, and BVJ03 located at the equatorial latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of North and South America, the τ change between 1-14 February 2022 by dividing the TEC by NmF2 was investigated locally. By comparing τ with the peak height of the F2 layer (hmF2), two clusters were detected around two different 12-hour curves that varied from region to region. It was found that the correlation between them was higher during the day and weaker at night. By calculating the angle between the curves, the diurnal variation of the relationship between τ and hmF2 in that region is shown, and it is seen that the angle difference increases from the equator to higher latitudes. Developing this research to cover all latitudes on Earth and a longer period will improve our understanding of space weather.
Correlating solar wind variation to the timing of field-aligned current flow
Anastasia Osborne, COL Diana Loucks, Matalyn Espenshade, Anna Maria Dear
A High-frequency Array for Radar and Radio Imaging of the Ionosphere
Brett Isham, Terence Bullett, Björn Gustavsson, Emil Polisensky, Vasyl Belyey, Arturs Stramkals, Christiano Brum
The proposed location for the array is at the site of the former U.S. Air Force Ramey Solar Observatory (RSO), in Aguadilla in northwest Puerto Rico. Radar imaging will be done in collaboration with the University of Colorado and NOAA HF radar system located at the USGS San Juan Observatory in Cayey, 110 km from Aguadilla.
Relocatable cable-less antenna elements will also be included, with phase maintained through the use of GPS-disciplined rubidium clocks. These elements may be used independently, or together with the main array for improved imaging resolution.
Science goals include the study of space weather, ionospheric structure and dynamics, meteors, lightning, radio propagation, and plasma physics. Radio imaging is ideal for the study of stimulated ionospheric radio emissions, such as those induced by the Arecibo Observatory high-power HF radio transmitter, which may be restored to operation in 2024. Observations of meteor tails could be used as a proxy for the development of detection and tracking techniques for hypersonic vehicles, a current defense priority.
Developing 3-D ionospheric specification over U.S. with a new TEC-based ionospheric data assimilation system (TIDAS)
Ercha Aa, Shun-Rong Zhang, Philip J. Erickson, Wenbin Wang, Anthea Coster, and William Rideout
The Effect of Density Enhancements on Radio Wave Propagation in the F-Region of the Ionosphere
Ezra Harris, Isaac Escapa, Alexis Komisza, COL Diana Loucks, PhD
Analysis in Ionospheric Navigation Solution Parameters
CDT Dominic Rudakevych, CDT Genevieve Tang, COL Diana Loucks, PhD and Dr. Mai Tran
Characterization of ionospheric irregularities near the southern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly in South America during quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions
Gilda de Lourdes González
Development of a discontinuous Galerkin ionosphere-plasmasphere model
Applications of FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 to Space Weather at CWB/SWOO
I-Te Lee, Jyun-Ying Huang, Hsu-Hui Ho, Mark Cheng
Detection of high-latitude ionospheric plasma conditions leading to GPS scintillations using a novel Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar mode
Identification of scale-dependent lags and application to ionospheric weather
Jaroslav Urbář, Luca Spogli, Antonio Cicone, Claudio Cesaroni and Lucilla Alfonsi
The method performance is evaluated first on known artificial signals. To show the usability of the technique in the Space Weather context, in scenario assuming cause-effect relationship, we use the closely separated measurements of the European Space Agency’s Swarm satellites by comparing the leading and trailing satellite (Swarm A-C pair) in the high latitude topside ionosphere, where we evaluate lags of the intensifications in the common scales between the electron density measurements and the field-aligned current measurements from Swarm FAC dataset. This can pave the way to future uses of this technique in contexts in which the causation chain can be hidden in a complex, multiscale coupling of the investigated features.
This work is performed within the Swarm Variability of Ionospheric Plasma (Swarm-VIP) project, funded by ESA in the “Swarm+4D-Ionosphere” framework (ESA Contract No. 4000130562/20/I-DT).
Performance of a locally adapted NeQuick 2 model during 2014 solar maximum over the Brazilian equatorial and low-latitude region
T.O. Osanyin ; C.M.N. Candido; F. Becker-Guedes; Yenca Migoya-Orue; F.S. Chingarandi.
Equatorial ionosphere study using the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT)
Sarvesh Mangla, Abhirup Datta
Innovative Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) Map Reconstruction and Forecasting Using Machine Learning
Shasha Zou, Yang Chen, Hu Sun, Zihan Wang, Yurui Chang
An ML Approach to Forecasting Space Weather Impacts on Critical Infrastructure from Ground-Based Arrays
Adam Schultz(1), Rolando Carbonari(2)
Under current NSF support we are exploring how to combine real-time magnetic observatory data streams with this information and with power flow simulations of the power grid to provide real-time alerting information of GIC impacts on high-voltage transformers to electric utilities.
In the present work we go beyond real-time and present preliminary results of our efforts to train neural networks to assimilate data from dense arrays of ground-based MT stations in Alaska to provide forecasts of ground electric and magnetic field time series that could in future, with installation of permanent MT arrays, provide actionable intelligence to utilities ahead of GICs impacting their networks.
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS OF THE GLOBAL IONOSPHERIC ELECTRODYNAMICS FROM WAM-IPE DURING ST. PATRICK’S DAY GEOMAGNETIC STORM (MARCH 17-18, 2015)
Dibyendu Sur, Tzu-Wei Fang, Timothy J. Fuller-Rowell, Daniel T. Welling, Mariangel Fedrizzi, Roderick A. Heelis
The MAGICIAN Project: Machine Learning, Data Collection, Education and Outreach for Space Science Research
Dogacan S. Ozturk, Victor Pinto, Austin Cohen, Matthew Blandin, Jeremiah Johnson, Charles Smith, Hyunju K. Connor, Amy Keesee and the MAGICIAN team
Cosmic Rays, Space Weather, and Human Chronobiology
Grace Wanliss, James Wanliss
Long-Term Impacts on the Middle and Upper Atmosphere from Energetic Electron Precipitation
Joshua Pettit, Cora Randall, Lynn Harvey
Association between the spatial characteristics of relativistic electron precipitation observed at LEO and its magnetospheric drivers
Luisa Capannolo, Wen Li, Robyn Millan, David Smith, Nithin Sivadas, John Sample, Sapna Shekhar, and Sheng Huang
Fine structure of geoeffective solar wind transients complicating space weather predictions
M. Ala-Lahti, A. P. Dimmock, T. I. Pulkkinen, S. W. Good, E. Yordanova, L. Turc, and E. Kilpua
Underestimates of ULF Geomagnetic and Geoelectric Fields: Revisiting the 29 October 2003 Geomagnetic Storm
Michael Hartinger, Xueling Shi, Josh Rigler, Craig Rodger, Ikuko Fujii, Karl Kappler, Juergen Matzka, Joseph Baker, Daniel MacManus, Michael Dalzell, Tanja Petersen
Multiscale Atmosphere Geospace Environment Model
Michael Wiltberger, Viacheslav Merkin, and The CGS Team
Geomagnetically Induced Currents and Space Weather Prediction in Austria
Philipp Schachinger, Dennis Albert, Rachel L. Bailey
Effects of Upstream Small Scale Structure on Predictive Performance of the Space Weather Modeling Framework
Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation Environment (AIRE) Institute
Eric Benton, Kyle Copeland, Brad Gersey, Tristen Lee and Martin Yang
Optimization Between 2020 and 2030 with Regard to the Space Weather
Mehmet Baran Ökten, Furkan Ali Küçük
Flying Through the Aurora: A Pilot's Guide
Prithika Chauhan, Jinni Meehan, Kevin Rattey
Space Weather Can Delay Your Trains
Cameron J. Patterson and James A. Wild
We aim to determine the impact space weather has on realistic modelled sections of the UK railway network with varying geometry and orientation across geologically different regions of the UK by using the Spherical Elementary Current System method of geomagnetic field interpolation, a ground conductivity model of the UK, a 1D-layered model to provide estimations of the geoelectric field and track circuit modelling techniques developed by Boteler (2021).
Results for a modelled section of the West Coast Main Line in North West England are shown, but the principles could be applied to any track circuited electrified railway.
A New Interactive 3-Dimensional Data Viewer for the Enlil Solar Wind Model
Chris Pankratz(1), Greg Lucas(1), Dusan Odstrcil(2), Jenny Knuth(1), Jim Craft(1), Tom Berger(1)
OSSEs and other numerical studies in support of the Space Weather Next (SW Next) Program
D. Vassiliadis,(1) I. Azeem,(1) M. Codrescu,(2) T. Fuller-Rowell,(2) A. Kellerman,(3) T. Matsuo,(4) T. Onsager,(2) J. Ostroy,(1) E. Sutton,(4) Y. Shprits,(5) N.-Y Wang(1)
How Machine Learning is reinventing Space Weather
Presentation available here: https://prezi.com/view/3cvCXBe7qFElGSZdC0Ql/
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ON THE POST-SUNSET IONOSPHERE OVER SOUTH AMERICA DURING SOLAR MINIMUM
F. S. Chingarandi 1, C. M. N. Candido 1, F. Becker-Guedes 1 , O. O. Taiwo, S.P. Moraes-Santos 1 , O.F. Jonah2
FETCH Instrument Concept: Spacecraft-to-Spacecraft Faraday Rotation Observations to Enhance Future Space Weather Forecasting
Jason Kooi(1), Elizabeth Jensen (2), Nat Gopalswamy(3), David B. Wexler(4), Ward Manchester(5), Lynn B Wilson III(3), Stuart D. Bale(6), Tim Bastian(7), Lan Jian(3), Joseph Lazio(8), Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla(3), Brian E. Wood(1), Shing F. Fung(3), Alexei Pevtsov(9), Megan Kenny(10), Lihua Li(3), Lloyd Purves(3), George Voellmer(3), and Qian Gong(3)
Space Weather Next (SW Next): Formulation Activities
J. Ostroy, E. Talaat, R. Ullman, S. Jacobs, I. Azeem, L. Palardy, F. Chaudhry, M. Devaney, K. Jensen, E. Lynch, S. Schnee, D. Vassiliadis
A machine-learning oriented remote and in-situ dataset for forecasting SEP occurrence and properties
K Moreland, S Chatterjee, MA Dayeh, H Bain, A Munoz-Jaramillo
This work aims to provide a validated dataset with parameters specifically tailored for forecasting the occurrence and subsequent properties of SEP events at 1 au. Special consideration is given to data that is currently available in operational real-time or will be available in real-time on upcoming missions.
ICAO Space Weather Advisories for Aviation
Klaus Sievers , Ralf Parzinger
Providing the next generation of space physicists and space weather professionals with a holistic view of the Sun-Earth system and the processes in the space environment: A Tale of Two Summer Schools
Nicholas Gross, Boston University (email@example.com); Stan Solomon, UCAR/HAO Mark Moldwin, Univ. of Michigan; Asher Pembroke, Ensemble Consultancy
There are two annual summer schools that partially fill this gap by providing a broad and holistic understanding of the space environment and its drivers. - The Boulder Space Weather Summer School(BSWSS; https://www2.hao.ucar.edu/SWSS) takes a conceptual understanding of the space weather system from Sun to Mud and provides context for each of the sub disciplines of space physics. - The Heliophysics Summer School (HSS; https://cpaess.ucar.edu/heliophysics/summer-school/recruitment-announcement) focuses on the physics of core processes, such as magnetic reconnection or MHD modeling, that describe the domains of the heliosphere (solar interior and corona, solar wind, magnetospheres, ionospheres, and the heliosphere boundary). This summer school emphasizes the unifying concepts between these domains.
Both of these summer schools draw upon world recognized experts in the field to provide lectures and lead discussions. In addition, each summer school makes use of state of the art simulation results from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), located at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Summer school participants engage in activities that use these simulation results, along with ground based and spacecraft data, to explore the fundamental concepts in the field.
The summer schools also provide opportunities for professional development, community building among the participants, and networking with the instructors. These summer schools play a key role in the development of the future workforce in space physics.
PlanetiQ GNSS RO Measurements of the Ionosphere
E. Robert Kursinski1, Jonathan Brandmeyer1, Ryan Gooch1, Aaron Botnick1, Craig Oliveira2, Mark Leidner2, Stephen Leroy2, Christian Alcala2.
The Geostationary Solar Energetic Particle (GSEP) Events Catalog
Sumanth Rotti, Berkay Aydin, Manolis K. Georgoulis and P.C.H. Martens
Machine Learning (ML) is a fascinating area that has found its place in the solar and space weather community. The motivation to use ML is that the models can learn and make decisions based on observational data and issue quicker forecasts to improve upon the results of the existing statistical models. Nonetheless, it is crucial to establish basic needs such as reliable data collection & analysis, feature engineering, and infrastructure. In this view, the work here highlights a dataset of SEP events.
We have integrated a comprehensive list of SEP events with reference to their parent SFs, and CMEs. It consists of 342 SEP events, extending from 1986 to 2017. The GSEP catalog helps users explore more SEP events with parameters of interest for various statistical studies and ML exercises. Also, it provides a reference to multiple parameters for each event, allowing researchers to understand if the event satisfies the criteria for case studies.
We use solar proton flux data from near-Earth observations of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). The time intensities of particle fluxes define and characterize SEP events. Such time profiles can distinguish the source event as the temporal behavior differs. We have cleaned the dataset and homogenized it across the GOES missions. Furthermore, we have generated time series slices of the SEP events, which are helpful to perform ML experiments on SEP event forecasting.